There are indications that an autumn Covid-19 wave may be approaching the United Kingdom, and experts believe the United States may not be far behind.
Although multiple coronavirus variants are gaining strength in the US and Europe, a recent rise in Covid-19 cases in England does not appear to be caused by a new coronavirus variation, at least not at this time.
“Usually, the US responds to UK events around a month later.” Spector is in charge of the Zoe Health Study, which enables participants in the US and the UK to use an app to record their daily symptoms. They perform a Covid-19 test at home and record the findings if they start to feel unwell. He claims that to follow trends in the epidemic, roughly 500,000 people are currently recording their symptoms every day.
According to Spector, the study, which has been underway since the first lockdown in England in 2020, has correctly identified the beginning of each wave, and its numbers are typically one to two weeks ahead of those provided by the government.
The Zoe investigation discovered a 30% spike in reported Covid-19 instances within the previous week after witnessing a declining trend for the previous few weeks.
This is unquestionably the start of the next wave, according to our most recent statistics, Spector said.
Although it was not as significant as the rises reported by Zoe loggers, that spike was also reflected in official UK government figures on Friday.
According to some projections, Covid-19 instances will start to climb again in the US in October and carry on through the winter. Experts are optimistic that this wave won’t be as lethal as those we’ve seen in recent years because the majority of the population now has some underlying immunity to the coronavirus.
Is this a wave or just a blip?
What is causing the surge in the UK or whether it will continue are both unknown.
According to Kevin McConway, an emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University in Milton Keynes, England, “These trends may persist for more than a week or two, or they may not.”
He claims that when looking at trends by age, younger adults (those between the ages of 25 and 34) and teenagers who are close to middle school age are clearly on the rise.
In a statement to the nonprofit Science Media Centre, McConway said: “It wouldn’t be surprising if there were some increase in infection as people return from summer vacations and as the schools reopen.” “Even if it is, there’s still no conclusive proof that it will continue.”
He is not the only one who feels that more information is necessary before declaring the beginning of a new wave.
“The first question is: How significant is that increase? Dr. Peter Hotez, who co-directs the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston, asked, “Is it, for example, the beginning of something, a new wave, or is this a temporary blip because of all of the coming together around the Queen’s funeral and other events that have been going on?”
If a new variety is responsible for the increase, it will be a second crucial question to ask.
“That’s the worst scenario imaginable. Because traditionally, when that circumstance arises in the UK, it manifests itself in the US within a few weeks,” Hotez remarked.
The function of new variants
That’s where the US might get lucky this time.
Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, believes that a mix of declining immunity and behavioral changes is to blame for the rise in cases in the UK rather than new varieties.
Many individuals in the UK have had their most recent Covid-19 booster or illness for several months, and according to government figures, only 8% of those 50 and older have received an Omicron-specific vaccine since the government’s fall vaccination campaign was launched in September. After the summer break, school and work have fully started, and as the weather gets colder, people are staying inside more often.
Additionally, Americans’ immune systems are deteriorating and taking longer to strengthen. According to CDC data, just 35% of individuals for whom a booster is advised to have received one.
The updated boosters in the US and the UK are a little bit dissimilar. To combat the outdated version of Omicron, which is no longer prevalent, the UK uses vaccines. The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which are now generating infections both domestically and overseas, have been added to the revised US boosters. It’s unclear whether the variations in strains will affect disease incidence or severity.
A variety of novel varieties, including offspring of BA.4 and BA.5, are in the works. Even though they only make up a small part of all cases, several are spreading against BA.5, which is still the predominant transmission agent.
According to Pagel in an email to CNN, “it is quite possible that these will accelerate present rises and generate a major wave in October” in the UK.
